Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


F9 2288 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:29	ORF 20:39	22%	9%	4.1%	79%
WN 2771 Southwest	MCO 16:31	ORF 18:40	24%	8%	2.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 58m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	7h 11m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	5h 53m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 45m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:22WN 2693	1h 11m Baltimore	BWI 12:33 → ORF 13:39WN 1098	4h 48m	96%	85%
United Details →	MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893	1h 10m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	4h 40m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984	7h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	6h 50m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	MCO 12:35 → BOS 15:44B6 252	1h 04m Boston	BOS 16:48 → ORF 18:38B6 1813	6h 03m	72%	48%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947	53m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:30 → ORF 22:52B6 1800	4h 27m	59%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON