Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 301 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 17:29	PDX 20:34	19%	6%	5.5%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	8h 41m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:17 → MSP 13:43DL 1730	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 18m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	7h 57m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 43m	100%	89%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	2h 24m Denver	DEN 09:57 → PDX 11:57F9 2553	9h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 51m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	1h 56m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	8h 24m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643	59m Newark	EWR 18:29 → PDX 21:32UA 560	9h 55m	70%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON