Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1228 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1228 MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4404 MCO 19:20 → PHL 22:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	7%	2%	0.9%	94%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:15	PHL 08:52	8%	3%	1.3%	69%
WN 4853 Southwest	MCO 09:06	PHL 11:50	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2779 American Flight history →	MCO 08:25	PHL 11:11	9%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 11:06	PHL 13:54	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
F9 1542 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHL 11:35	13%	5%	1.1%	87%
AA 1574 American	MCO 12:29	PHL 15:22	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:59	PHL 14:34	19%	8%	0.9%	70%
AA 3268 American	MCO 15:16	PHL 18:08	21%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 3153 American Flight history →	MCO 16:32	PHL 19:28	22%	8%	3.2%	70%
AA 2523 American	MCO 17:45	PHL 20:37	23%	8%	7.9%	no record
AA 2952 American Flight history →	MCO 19:23	PHL 22:15	25%	9%	3.2%	59%
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:20	PHL 22:15	28%	12%	3.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON