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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2776 at 07:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 2776 MCO 07:41 → PHX 09:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4405 MCO 19:36 → PHX 21:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2776 Southwest MCO 07:41 PHX 09:14 6% 1% 0.6% no record
AA 1605 American MCO 07:54 PHX 09:49 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2805 Southwest MCO 12:41 PHX 14:15 14% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 4405 Southwest MCO 19:36 PHX 21:10 21% 7% 2.0% no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 05m Houston IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895 6h 34m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:30 → DFW 11:24AA 2075 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336 6h 42m 89% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON