Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 563 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 563 MCO 06:38 → PIT 09:09 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 846 MCO 18:46 → PIT 21:17 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 563 Southwest	MCO 06:38	PIT 09:09	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4811 Southwest	MCO 09:01	PIT 11:33	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2781 Southwest	MCO 11:16	PIT 13:47	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:08	PIT 13:48	12%	7%	0.7%	77%
WN 4943 Southwest	MCO 16:01	PIT 18:31	20%	7%	1.7%	no record
WN 3369 Southwest	MCO 17:36	PIT 20:06	20%	8%	4.6%	no record
WN 846 Southwest	MCO 18:46	PIT 21:17	21%	8%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON