tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 28%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: F9 4661 at 12:34, 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 4661 Frontier Flight history → MCO 12:34 PNS 13:22 27% 13% 3.2% 74%
MX 1939 Breeze MCO 11:30 PNS 12:10 28% 8% 3.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103 3h 47m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → PNS 12:47DL 1640 6h 42m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 36m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 5h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 08m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 10:45 → PNS 11:32AA 2476 5h 34m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:54 → PNS 19:14DL 3021 6h 09m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:22 → DFW 10:18AA 2961 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:55 → PNS 14:53AA 2328 7h 31m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:22 → DFW 10:18AA 2961 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:04 → PNS 13:03AA 2863 5h 41m 68% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON