Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3241 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3241 MCO 07:24 → PVD 10:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2649 MCO 19:56 → PVD 22:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3241 Southwest	MCO 07:24	PVD 10:23	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2785 Southwest	MCO 14:26	PVD 17:26	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:02	PVD 17:08	26%	10%	1.0%	69%
WN 2649 Southwest	MCO 19:56	PVD 22:56	27%	10%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON