Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: F9 1112 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day F9 1112 MCO 07:24 → RDU 09:28 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest WN 2788 MCO 15:51 → RDU 17:46 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:24	RDU 09:28	6%	3%	0.8%	80%
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
WN 2816 Southwest	MCO 09:01	RDU 10:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:10	RDU 16:07	13%	4%	0.7%	77%
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:39	RDU 16:43	18%	8%	0.9%	77%
DL 1370 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:00	RDU 21:55	18%	8%	0.9%	70%
WN 2788 Southwest	MCO 15:51	RDU 17:46	22%	7%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON