tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 670 at 14:03, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 670 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 14:03 RIC 16:15 21% 10% 0.9% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 26m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 7h 10m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 40m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:05DL 3073 7h 03m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 10:29 → RIC 11:48AA 5119 · flown by PSA 4h 50m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228 3h 07m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 07m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 6h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 6h 48m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:40 → ORD 11:48UA 2683 2h 42m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337 46m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RIC 23:28DL 4679 · flown by Endeavor 5h 37m 73% 53%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 15:49 → BOS 19:00B6 1152 1h 03m Boston BOS 20:03 → RIC 21:57B6 381 6h 08m 61% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON