Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1042 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:41	ROC 13:28	13%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 2791 Southwest	MCO 14:31	ROC 17:22	21%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	6h 01m	99%	88%
American Details →	MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	5h 16m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	7h 15m	99%	79%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont	7h 17m	99%	77%
American Details →	MCO 16:32 → PHL 19:28AA 3153	2h 42m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont	7h 09m	100%	76%
United Details →	MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893	55m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet	4h 41m	89%	76%
United Details →	MCO 09:08 → ORD 11:19UA 2466	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239	7h 37m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON