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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2792 at 10:41, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2792 Southwest MCO 10:41 RSW 11:50 11% 3% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43DL 1089 4h 13m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153 5h 56m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196 5h 30m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 8h 20m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → RSW 14:14AA 2018 7h 16m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 55m Houston IAH 09:30 → RSW 13:14UA 494 6h 14m 92% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:22WN 2693 2h 09m Baltimore BWI 13:31 → RSW 16:15WN 203 7h 24m 100% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON