Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2825 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 2825 MCO 07:51 → SAN 09:55 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2795 MCO 18:21 → SAN 20:22 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2825 Southwest	MCO 07:51	SAN 09:55	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 397 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:20	SAN 21:27	30%	8%	1.9%	74%
WN 2795 Southwest	MCO 18:21	SAN 20:22	36%	8%	1.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26DL 725	6h 56m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	7h 03m	95%	79%
United Details →	MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611	1h 15m Houston	IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399	7h 11m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON