Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 18:49 → SEA 21:32 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 395 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 07:00	SEA 10:09	14%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	17%	5%	1.7%	68%
AS 468 Alaska	MCO 09:02	SEA 11:46	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 18:49	SEA 21:32	21%	6%	1.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:46DL 2080	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 08m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	52m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	7h 45m	92%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON