Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2855 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2855 MCO 08:09 → SFO 10:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2620 MCO 19:03 → SFO 21:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2855 United Flight history →	MCO 08:09	SFO 10:53	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
UA 2802 United	MCO 10:00	SFO 12:34	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2620 United Flight history →	MCO 19:03	SFO 21:50	28%	9%	1.2%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 50m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 18m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750	7h 45m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON