Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2801 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2801 MCO 06:26 → SJU 09:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 433 MCO 19:04 → SJU 22:07 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2801 Southwest	MCO 06:26	SJU 09:23	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2802 Southwest	MCO 08:54	SJU 11:56	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:10	SJU 10:10	10%	3%	1.0%	74%
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:33	SJU 09:41	10%	3%	1.2%	68%
WN 4903 Southwest	MCO 12:26	SJU 15:29	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:10	SJU 14:11	18%	7%	1.1%	86%
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:14	SJU 14:22	18%	5%	1.3%	87%
WN 3378 Southwest	MCO 13:56	SJU 16:59	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:33	SJU 15:36	20%	9%	1.0%	72%
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:44	SJU 16:49	21%	7%	1.3%	79%
F9 2868 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:12	SJU 23:22	24%	8%	2.0%	64%
WN 3431 Southwest	MCO 19:01	SJU 21:59	25%	9%	2.4%	no record
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:54	SJU 18:56	26%	10%	1.9%	75%
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:04	SJU 22:07	29%	13%	3.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON