Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2025 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2025 MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1691 MCO 19:25 → SLC 22:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2025 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:15	SLC 09:55	5%	1%	0.5%	94%
DL 2031 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:45	SLC 13:21	9%	2%	0.5%	85%
DL 1140 Delta	MCO 16:47	SLC 19:20	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1691 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:25	SLC 22:11	21%	8%	0.9%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	6h 44m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	6h 45m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	6h 46m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON