Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2808 Southwest	MCO 18:31	SMF 21:06	25%	7%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	10h 34m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	58m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 09m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	8h 22m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 13m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 13:05 → ATL 14:44DL 664	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743	9h 48m	99%	83%
Frontier Details →	MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733	1h 26m Denver	DEN 08:59 → SMF 10:38F9 3665	8h 03m	96%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MCO 14:37 → EWR 17:30UA 1643	59m Newark	EWR 18:29 → SMF 21:32UA 1926	9h 55m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON