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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via DFW, leaving 08:22, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:22 → DFW 10:18AA 2961 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 8h 26m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 10h 01m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 57m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 3h 46m Houston IAH 12:21 → SNA 14:06UA 1533 10h 06m 100% 83%
FrontierDetails → MCO 05:35 → DEN 07:33F9 1733 1h 27m Denver DEN 09:00 → SNA 10:28F9 4371 7h 53m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 8h 54m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 11:01AA 1939 8h 31m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 45m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON