tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2809 at 10:41, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2809 Southwest MCO 10:41 SRQ 11:38 13% 3% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 22m 98% 93%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 29m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:20DL 3115 6h 15m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:40 → ATL 17:30DL 1372 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 12m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 7h 12m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 08:51 → BWI 11:22WN 2693 2h 44m Baltimore BWI 14:06 → SRQ 16:39WN 1167 7h 48m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 10:18 → SRQ 12:14AA 1452 5h 16m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41DL 1573 47m New York LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412 6h 33m 88% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:04 → EWR 18:57UA 2629 1h 12m Newark EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324 7h 11m 69% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON