Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 314 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 314 MCO 06:07 → STL 07:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2815 MCO 19:27 → STL 21:05 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 314 Southwest	MCO 06:07	STL 07:46	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1759 Southwest	MCO 08:27	STL 10:06	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2949 Southwest	MCO 11:53	STL 13:33	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2635 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:18	STL 18:05	22%	7%	3.3%	72%
WN 2814 Southwest	MCO 16:32	STL 18:11	22%	5%	2.2%	no record
WN 2815 Southwest	MCO 19:27	STL 21:05	25%	6%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON