Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4810 at 11:01, 25%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4810 Southwest	MCO 11:01	STT 14:05	25%	10%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → STT 13:40DL 1899	8h 10m	99%	82%
American Details →	MCO 06:01 → MIA 07:12AA 2894	2h 44m Miami	MIA 09:56 → STT 12:48AA 943	6h 47m	99%	80%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 07:11 → SJU 10:11B6 1033	3h 10m San Juan	SJU 13:21 → STT 14:13B6 936	7h 02m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON