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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2852 at 19:56, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2852 Southwest MCO 19:56 TUL 21:42 27% 10% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 4h 48m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 41m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 12:28 → TUL 14:00AA 2657 8h 02m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:41DL 2204 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 48m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 40m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 6h 59m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MCO 12:50 → DFW 14:45AA 2136 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 7h 58m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:34 → TUL 09:55AA 2348 5h 25m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:41 → DFW 17:35AA 1737 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → TUL 19:48AA 3715 · flown by Envoy 5h 07m 75% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON