tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2819 at 11:21, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2819 Southwest MCO 11:21 TYS 13:10 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:05DL 1548 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:32 → TYS 09:35DL 1817 4h 05m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:15 → ATL 07:58DL 1494 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 4h 55m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → MCO 06:58 → CLT 08:50AA 1647 2h 21m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → TYS 12:34AA 5953 · flown by Piedmont 5h 36m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 5h 43m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042 6h 39m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → TYS 12:51AA 2544 7h 21m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:42DL 1213 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 11m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MCO 09:01 → CLT 10:54AA 609 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 6h 41m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:41 → DFW 17:35AA 1737 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:29 → TYS 21:42AA 5346 · flown by PSA 6h 01m 69% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON