Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4714 at 07:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4714 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MDT 07:00	BOS 08:31	9%	4%	1.5%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 41m	99%	87%
American Details →	MDT 06:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6013 · flown by Piedmont	2h 50m Philadelphia	PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416	5h 18m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDT 06:15 → DTW 07:52DL 4787 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → BOS 12:00DL 2648	5h 45m	98%	84%
American Details →	MDT 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5833 · flown by Piedmont	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 10:21 → BOS 12:46AA 2263	6h 15m	96%	84%
American Details →	MDT 05:00 → CLT 06:44AA 6100 · flown by Piedmont	1h 43m Charlotte	CLT 08:27 → BOS 10:51AA 1151	5h 51m	94%	83%
United Details →	MDT 06:15 → IAD 07:13UA 4244 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → BOS 10:20UA 641	4h 05m	93%	80%
American Details →	MDT 15:30 → CLT 17:18AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → BOS 22:31AA 1843	7h 01m	98%	78%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 09:05 → BOS 12:35UA 1367	6h 05m	94%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MDT 15:30 → CLT 17:18AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont	1h 16m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	5h 29m	67%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON