Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:41, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 977 American Flight history →	MDT 07:05	DFW 09:31	10%	5%	1.0%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Harrisburg). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 08m	98%	89%
American Details →	MDT 06:31 → CLT 08:20AA 5833 · flown by Piedmont	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747	7h 45m	98%	85%
American Details →	MDT 05:00 → CLT 06:44AA 6100 · flown by Piedmont	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 09:05 → DFW 10:53AA 575	6h 53m	97%	85%
American Details →	MDT 10:15 → PHL 11:14AA 6117 · flown by Piedmont	1h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	6h 16m	100%	84%
American Details →	MDT 06:45 → PHL 07:40AA 6013 · flown by Piedmont	3h 04m Philadelphia	PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:09AA 3326	7h 24m	98%	84%
American Details →	MDT 10:40 → CLT 12:25AA 5786 · flown by Piedmont	2h 39m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	7h 18m	100%	83%
American Details →	MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08AA 5638 · flown by PSA	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 12:59 → DFW 14:48AA 1690	7h 24m	99%	83%
United Details →	MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	7h 42m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MDT 15:30 → CLT 17:18AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont	53m Charlotte	CLT 18:11 → DFW 19:59AA 2815	5h 29m	56%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON