tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 4787 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MDT 06:15 DTW 07:52 4% 4% 1.8% 96%
DL 4891 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record MDT 17:34 DTW 19:14 44% 19% 1.8% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDT 06:04 → ATL 08:02DL 1255 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 6h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → MDT 14:00 → ATL 16:08DL 4717 · flown by Endeavor 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262 7h 11m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → MDT 11:41 → ATL 13:42DL 1248 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067 7h 33m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → MDT 06:15 → IAD 07:13UA 4244 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 22m Dulles IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa 3h 59m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → MDT 08:24 → CLT 10:08AA 5638 · flown by PSA 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → DTW 14:19AA 1683 5h 55m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → MDT 06:30 → ORD 07:42UA 2684 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → MDT 10:40 → CLT 12:25AA 5786 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 15:42 → DTW 17:34AA 1134 6h 54m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → MDT 15:30 → CLT 17:18AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419 7h 04m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON