Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 739 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 739 MDT 05:59 → ORD 07:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2134 MDT 17:54 → ORD 19:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 739 American	MDT 05:59	ORD 07:07	9%	5%	2.3%	no record
UA 2684 United Flight history →	MDT 06:30	ORD 07:42	11%	3%	1.8%	85%
OO 6054 SkyWest	MDT 10:43	ORD 11:46	22%	10%	1.7%	no record
YX 3463 Republic	MDT 14:11	ORD 15:30	23%	8%	1.4%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	MDT 12:28	ORD 13:28	24%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	MDT 19:45	ORD 21:16	28%	9%	2.0%	62%
UA 2134 United	MDT 17:54	ORD 19:05	29%	10%	1.3%	no record
UA 4185 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	MDT 10:40	ORD 11:56	6%	3%	0.0%	94%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON