Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1837 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1837 MDW 07:06 → ATL 10:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2144 MDW 18:44 → ATL 22:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1837 Southwest	MDW 07:06	ATL 10:13	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1285 Delta Flight history →	MDW 06:00	ATL 08:57	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 223 Southwest	MDW 08:31	ATL 11:37	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	MDW 11:05	ATL 14:01	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	MDW 12:41	ATL 15:43	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	MDW 17:10	ATL 20:22	8%	3%	0.6%	74%
WN 2826 Southwest	MDW 12:54	ATL 16:00	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2827 Southwest	MDW 17:44	ATL 20:51	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2292 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 06:05	ATL 09:22	14%	5%	1.0%	71%
F9 2144 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 18:44	ATL 22:00	22%	9%	0.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON