Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3457 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3457 MDW 05:31 → BOS 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2213 MDW 15:31 → BOS 18:57 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3457 Southwest	MDW 05:31	BOS 08:59	4%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 4535 Southwest	MDW 07:51	BOS 11:19	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2842 Southwest	MDW 11:01	BOS 14:27	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4649 Southwest	MDW 12:46	BOS 16:12	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1266 Southwest	MDW 18:46	BOS 22:12	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2213 Southwest	MDW 15:31	BOS 18:57	29%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON