Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1799 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1799 MDW 05:01 → BWI 08:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2850 MDW 18:26 → BWI 21:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1799 Southwest	MDW 05:01	BWI 08:00	2%	<1%	0.9%	no record
WN 973 Southwest	MDW 07:21	BWI 10:20	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2880 Southwest	MDW 11:01	BWI 13:59	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2848 Southwest	MDW 12:46	BWI 15:44	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 5030 Southwest	MDW 19:36	BWI 22:35	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2850 Southwest	MDW 18:26	BWI 21:25	20%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON