Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4652 at 12:56, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4652 Southwest	MDW 12:56	CHS 16:07	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493	7h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 11m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:42 → CHS 16:26DL 2463	5h 32m	89%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON