tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4497 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4497 Southwest MDW 07:46 CLT 10:38 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4904 Southwest MDW 18:56 CLT 21:48 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157 6h 31m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 7h 55m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor 2h 30m Detroit DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429 5h 38m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 6h 14m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132 6h 30m 99% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON