Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1303 at 07:46 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1303 Southwest	MDW 07:46	CVG 10:01	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2484 Southwest	MDW 19:31	CVG 21:47	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	4h 25m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248	7h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → CVG 19:25DL 3119	7h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → CVG 15:16DL 5446 · flown by Endeavor	4h 59m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 18:40 → CVG 19:58DL 5215 · flown by Endeavor	5h 32m	94%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	48m Detroit	DTW 16:32 → CVG 17:49DL 5060 · flown by Endeavor	3h 23m	73%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON