Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, F9 2999 at 12:47, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


F9 2999 Frontier Flight history →	MDW 12:47	DFW 15:17	19%	7%	0.9%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	5h 12m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971	7h 22m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	8h 00m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041	5h 15m	84%	70%
Frontier Details →	MDW 06:05 → ATL 09:22F9 2292	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:36 → DFW 12:05F9 1269	6h 00m	92%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON