Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 21m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Detroit	DTW 14:10 → EWR 15:54DL 2573	5h 37m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866	6h 59m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 49m	96%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 13m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567	5h 04m	90%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON