Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1946 Southwest	MDW 09:41	GRR 11:45	5%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4954 Southwest	MDW 15:06	GRR 17:09	14%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	52m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	4h 43m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → GRR 17:14DL 2058	5h 09m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 12:48 → GRR 15:17DL 1245	4h 23m	90%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:56 → GRR 13:55DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	3h 38m	85%	59%
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 36m Detroit	DTW 22:55 → GRR 23:57DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m	76%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON