Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2888 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2888 MDW 07:12 → HOU 09:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2892 MDW 18:06 → HOU 20:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2888 Southwest	MDW 07:12	HOU 09:46	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 5004 Southwest	MDW 08:32	HOU 11:08	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2889 Southwest	MDW 09:42	HOU 12:18	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 799 Southwest	MDW 11:51	HOU 14:27	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2891 Southwest	MDW 15:46	HOU 18:23	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2892 Southwest	MDW 18:06	HOU 20:43	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON