Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 33m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644	7h 45m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327	7h 27m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31DL 1131	6h 26m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	7h 46m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	51m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → IAH 14:19DL 1307	5h 02m	82%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON