Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2699 at 09:51, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2699 Southwest	MDW 09:51	IND 11:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	5h 36m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:27 → IND 19:07DL 3120	7h 02m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910	4h 39m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:35 → IND 19:10DL 2979	5h 29m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 17:42 → IND 19:00DL 5034 · flown by Endeavor	4h 34m	90%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → IND 00:07 +1DL 5095 · flown by Endeavor	4h 09m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON