Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4987 at 15:01, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4987 Southwest	MDW 15:01	JAX 18:20	18%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	7h 10m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 45m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	6h 00m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189	7h 08m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	59m Atlanta	ATL 16:42 → JAX 17:57DL 2440	4h 16m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON