Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2905 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2905 MDW 05:11 → LGA 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2745 MDW 17:11 → LGA 20:21 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2905 Southwest	MDW 05:11	LGA 08:23	5%	1%	2.8%	no record
WN 2906 Southwest	MDW 08:21	LGA 11:33	11%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 147 Southwest	MDW 09:30	LGA 12:41	16%	4%	1.5%	no record
WN 241 Southwest	MDW 12:51	LGA 16:01	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 309 Southwest	MDW 19:36	LGA 22:46	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
WN 3337 Southwest	MDW 14:41	LGA 17:51	36%	10%	1.2%	no record
WN 2745 Southwest	MDW 17:11	LGA 20:21	39%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON