Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2912 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 2912 MDW 07:51 → MCI 09:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2917 MDW 18:26 → MCI 19:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2912 Southwest	MDW 07:51	MCI 09:25	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2913 Southwest	MDW 09:51	MCI 11:25	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2914 Southwest	MDW 11:52	MCI 13:26	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2915 Southwest	MDW 14:27	MCI 16:00	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2916 Southwest	MDW 15:51	MCI 17:25	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2917 Southwest	MDW 18:26	MCI 19:59	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON