Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2919 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2919 MDW 05:01 → MCO 08:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2923 MDW 18:41 → MCO 22:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2919 Southwest	MDW 05:01	MCO 08:35	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3798 Southwest	MDW 08:56	MCO 12:29	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3884 Southwest	MDW 12:46	MCO 16:19	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 2344 Southwest	MDW 14:16	MCO 17:49	17%	6%	3.4%	no record
WN 1678 Southwest	MDW 15:46	MCO 19:19	21%	7%	2.2%	no record
WN 2923 Southwest	MDW 18:41	MCO 22:14	22%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON