Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1786 at 10:36, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1786 Southwest	MDW 10:36	MEM 12:19	5%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 32m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 02m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 12:41 → ATL 15:43DL 2417	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	5h 35m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON