Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2119 at 08:06, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2119 Southwest	MDW 08:06	MIA 12:09	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 02m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:49 → MSP 15:33DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	8h 46m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	5h 29m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 14:32 → MIA 17:35DL 2548	7h 18m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:23DL 719	6h 18m	98%	70%
Frontier Details →	MDW 12:47 → DFW 15:17F9 2999	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:02 → MIA 22:06F9 2676	8h 19m	94%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON