Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4450 at 09:56, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4450 Southwest	MDW 09:56	MKE 10:48	7%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	5h 53m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006	5h 15m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206	6h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 13:26 → DTW 15:44DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00DL 3675 · flown by SkyWest	4h 34m	89%	69%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	50m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MKE 12:42DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m	82%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON