Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 447 MDW 07:39 → MSP 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2935 MDW 16:56 → MSP 18:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 447 Southwest	MDW 07:39	MSP 09:10	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2066 Southwest	MDW 09:56	MSP 11:27	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	MDW 14:06	MSP 15:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2935 Southwest	MDW 16:56	MSP 18:27	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5469 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 09:54	MSP 11:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 4820 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 13:49	MSP 15:33	32%	19%	3.6%	68%
DL 4713 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MDW 19:06	MSP 20:51	38%	25%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON