Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1587 Southwest	MDW 08:41	MSY 10:58	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 446 Southwest	MDW 16:16	MSY 18:34	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	5h 37m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	7h 19m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	5h 31m	89%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON