Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 184 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 184 MDW 05:41 → PHX 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2959 MDW 18:16 → PHX 19:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 184 Southwest	MDW 05:41	PHX 07:21	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 725 Southwest	MDW 09:16	PHX 11:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2003 Southwest	MDW 11:21	PHX 13:03	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2360 Southwest	MDW 14:41	PHX 16:21	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1783 Southwest	MDW 16:06	PHX 17:46	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2960 Southwest	MDW 19:16	PHX 20:57	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest	MDW 18:16	PHX 19:49	24%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON