Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2963 Southwest	MDW 07:46	PIT 10:17	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2964 Southwest	MDW 13:22	PIT 15:53	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MDW 06:00 → ATL 08:57DL 1285	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	5h 52m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	MDW 11:05 → ATL 14:01DL 1063	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122	6h 42m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MDW 17:10 → ATL 20:22DL 1728	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583	4h 50m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:17 → DTW 11:35DL 4674 · flown by Endeavor	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → PIT 15:40DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor	5h 23m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	MDW 09:54 → MSP 11:35DL 5469 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → PIT 16:23DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor	5h 29m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MDW 18:58 → DTW 21:19DL 4690 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → PIT 00:07 +1DL 5369 · flown by Endeavor	4h 08m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON